Purpose: The purpose of this study is to provide a statistical projection of the number of alloplastic temporomandibular joint (TMJ) total joint replacements (TJRs) that will be performed in the United States through the year 2030.
Materials and methods: The program directors of all 101 Commission on Dental Accreditation-accredited oral and maxillofacial surgery training programs in the United States were surveyed online by use of a questionnaire developed using Redcap (Chicago, IL) over a 6-week period (February 2015-March 2015). The questionnaire included 19 questions related to each program’s TMJ disorder and TMJ TJR curricula, as well as clinical experience. In addition, members of the American Society of Temporomandibular Joint Surgeons were surveyed online using Redcap and via direct survey forms. Moreover, requests for the total number of TMJ TJR devices produced and implanted during the same period were made to the 3 manufacturers of Food and Drug Administration-approved TMJ TJR devices in the United States.
Results: The response rate among program directors was 52.5%, and the total number of TMJ TJR devices implanted in oral and maxillofacial surgery programs in 2005 was 412. This total increased by 38% to 572 in 2014. Statistically, this projects an increase of 58% over the next 16 years to 902 TMJ TJR operations by 2030 (95% prediction limits, 768 and 1,037). The total number of TMJ TJR devices distributed by one manufacturer increased from 430 in the year 2000 to 1,004 in 2014 (133%). By use of these data, statistically over the next 16 years, the number of TMJ TJR devices distributed by this company is projected to be 1,658 (95% prediction limits, 1,380 and 1,935).
Conclusions: The data presented in this study show an increasing demand for the use of TMJ TJR devices in the management of end-stage TMJ disorders to the year 2030.